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NAQC Newsroom: Research

Predictive Validation and Forecasts of Short-term Changes in Healthcare Expenditure Associated with

Thursday, January 23, 2020  
Posted by: Natalia Gromov
Lightwood J, Anderson S, Glantz SA.
Predictive Validation and Forecasts of Short-term Changes in Healthcare Expenditure Associated with Changes in Smoking Behavior in the United States.
PLoS One. 2020 Jan 16;15(1):e0227493. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0227493. eCollection 2020.

Out-of-sample forecasts are used to evaluate the predictive adequacy of a previously published national model of the relationship between smoking behavior and real per capita health care expenditure using state level aggregate data. In the previously published analysis, the elasticities between changes in state adult current smoking prevalence and mean cigarette consumption per adult current smoker and healthcare expenditures were 0.118 and 0.108 This new analysis provides evidence that the model forecasts out-of-sample well.

Reductions in smoking produce substantial savings in real per capita healthcare expenditure in short to medium term. A 5% relative drop in smoking prevalence (about a 0.87% reduction in absolute prevalence) combined with a 5% drop in consumption per remaining smoker (about 16 packs/year) would be followed by a $31.5 billion reduction in healthcare expenditure (in 2014 dollars).


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