Effect of Tobacco Sales Bans on Retail Sales in Beverly Hills and Manhattan Beach, California, USA:

Mukand NH, Max WB, Colonna R, Andersen-Rodgers E, White JS.
Effect of Tobacco Sales Bans on Retail Sales in Beverly Hills and Manhattan Beach, California, USA: a Synthetic Difference-in-differences Analysis
Tob Control. 2025 Nov 11:tc-2024-059184. doi: 10.1136/tc-2024-059184. Epub ahead of print. PMID: 41219114.

Background: On 1 January 2021, Beverly Hills and Manhattan Beach, California, became the first cities in the USA to ban tobacco product sales. We evaluated the effects of these policies on the sale of tobacco products and non-tobacco products by store in each city and its neighbouring area.

Methods: We used custom NielsenIQ retail scanner data by product and store to estimate actual and counterfactual sales trends for a set of convenience, grocery and drug stores in Beverly Hills and Manhattan Beach and their border areas using synthetic difference-in-differences models. Tobacco product unit sales were estimated overall and by tobacco product category. We also estimated changes in dollar sales of total non-tobacco products to evaluate broader economic impacts.

Results: Tobacco sales in included stores ceased within 3 months of the policy going into effect in Beverly Hills and nearly ceased by December 2021 in Manhattan Beach. A shift in cross-border shopping was detected for cigars only. Non-tobacco product sales did not significantly change in either city or the border area.

Conclusion: The tobacco sales bans in Beverly Hills and Manhattan Beach nearly eliminated local tobacco sales in the included stores, without prompting substantial cross-border shopping. Stability of non-tobacco product sales for included stores suggests these policies did not adversely affect local retail economies. These results suggest the viability of tobacco sales bans as an effective tobacco control strategy.