The Impact of a Menthol Cigarette Ban on Tobacco Use, Lung Cancer, and Life Expectancy

Mills SD, Tapp-Hughes N, Zhang Y, Ribisl KM, Wiesen CA, Lich KH.
The Impact of a Menthol Cigarette Ban on Tobacco Use, Lung Cancer, and Life Expectancy
Nicotine Tob Res. 2026 Jul 8:ntag157. doi: 10.1093/ntr/ntag157. Epub ahead of print. PMID: 42417808.

Introduction: The Food and Drug Administration proposed a rule to ban the sale of menthol cigarettes, but recently withdrew the proposal. This study uses simulation modeling to estimate the impact of a national menthol cigarette ban on tobacco use, life expectancy, and lung cancer.

Methods: We used the Tobacco Use Individual-level Simulation and Tracking (TwIST) Model, a validated microsimulation model of tobacco use in the US adult population. The simulated population and model parameter estimates are primarily informed by data from the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health Study. We used findings from a published meta-analysis to inform estimates of the impact of a menthol ban on tobacco use in the model.

Results: Ten years after a menthol ban, the model projects a 38.5% reduction in tobacco use prevalence among adults. Declines are even greater in the non-Hispanic Black population (70.4% reduction) and among individuals living in poverty (46.0% reduction). Among a cohort of adults, individual life expectancy is projected to increase by 73 days, on average. Among the non-Hispanic Black population and individuals living in poverty, life expectancy will increase by 193 days and 183 days, respectively. In the cohort, 1-year incidence of lung cancer is estimated to decline by 14.4% in the general population, 32.4% among non-Hispanic Black adults, and 22.1% among individuals living in poverty.

Conclusions: A menthol ban would reduce tobacco use and lung cancer rates, while increasing life expectancy. The greatest benefits are expected among non-Hispanic Black individuals and people living in poverty.